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E-mini S&P (September)
Last weeks close:Settled at 2977, down 20.50 on Friday and down 38.50 on the week
Fundamentals:Earnings, trade and the Fed are all in focus this week and expectations will gyrate, but you must keep a pulse on these three charts, Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Trading Nation on Friday to discuss.U.S benchmarks slipped sharply into Friday afternoon as Fed rate cut expectations for next weeks meeting were toned down. The table was really set Thursday afternoon when NY Fed President Williams said the Fed should act preemptively to battle slowing growth. Markets digested his comments as signaling a 50-basis point cut and the S&P rallied nearly 1%. The NY Fed released a statement clarifying his speech as academic and not an imminent policy action. Still, the S&P held ground at or near its spike high through the opening bell Friday. As the session unfolded, rate cut odds continued to dissipate and Iran seized a British tanker. Considering all, it was not surprising to see selling ahead of the busiest earnings week of the quarter.
U.S benchmarks lost the tailwind from Williams comments just as rumblings of a Wall Street Journal article made the rounds Friday afternoon; Fed Officials Signal Quarter-Point Rate Cut Likely at July Meeting. Headlined by Williams, Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Clarida, this also exuded what was known to be hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren, a 2019 voter. In a CNBC interview he noted, the economy is doing perfectly well without easing. What was a 70% probability of a 50-basis point cut Thursday evening has now become a 25%
Price action is stable this morning after China said a new round of trade talks could happen soon. Both sides have seemingly taken steps to appease the other. However, tensions with Iran remain high and this could erode sentiment in the near-term. Todays earnings calendar doesnt boast the big names, although Halliburton does release ahead of the bell. This week, we look to Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Starbucks, 3M, Visa and much more.Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Trading Nation on Friday to take a look at Boeing who reports Wednesday.
Technicals:Both the S&P and NQ traded to new lows on the week right into the electronic close. Todays session has held those lows that align perfectly with out major three-star supports at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude Oil (September)
Last weeks close:Settled at 55.76, up 0.34 on Friday and down 4.54 on the week
Fundamentals:Crude Oil is up about 1% this morning but trading off its overnight high of 57.04. Price action was suppressed through much of Friday until news broke that Iran seized a British tanker. Tensions with Iran are high and U.K Prime Minister May called an emergency meeting. Bloombergs latest headline reads Iran to Execute Members of Alleged CIA-Trained Spy Network. Traders must keep an ear to the ground as situations with Iran are not subsiding soon. Another factor supporting prices was an outage in Libya Friday. However, news that production is back to half capacity has reined in the tape.
Technicals:With geopolitical tensions at a height, price action could not get out above major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last weeks close:Settled at 1426.7, down 1.4 on Friday and up 14.5 on the week
Fundamentals:Friday was both fundamentally and technically disappointing for Gold. The metal surged to finish out Thursday, trading to a new swing high, as expectations for a 50-basis point cut next week mounted. However, the NY Fed walked back comments, Boston Fed President Rosengren was hawkish and the Wall Street Journal posted an article arguing the case for only 25 basis points. The good news for the metal is the 10-year Treasury Note cannot lift itself from the 2% mark and if prices remain stable in that complex it lays a constructive landscape for Gold. The Dollar has regained Thursdays late losses, but fresh July Michigan Consumer data Friday underwhelmed.
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