Wheat is trading with higher on Wednesday to push the rally a little further. The wheat complex posted a fresh round of buying on Tuesday, with double digit gains across all three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures were up 16 to 17 cents on the session. Tuesday’s Preliminary open interest was down 3,843 contracts, suggesting some shorts were covering.  Kansas City HRW contracts closed with 13 to 14 cent gains. Preliminary open interest was down 315 contracts on Tuesday, with July down 1,431. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were 11 to 13 cents higher. Some in the trade were noting warmer temps in parts of Chinese wheat regions as a catalysts, as well as recent frosts in Russia, though there was likely some short covering as well.

Weekly Crop Progress data indicated winter wheat conditions slipping 2% to 52% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 2 to 336. Ratings by state via the Brugler500 index were down 13 points in CO, and 14 points in TX for the HRW states, with MI slipping 3 and NC down 4. Improvement was noted in SD, up 22 points, with KS up 4, NE 7 points higher and OK up 6. 

European Commission data shows the EU has exported 18.45 MMT of wheat since July 1 through May 18. That lags the 27.89 MMT from the same period in 2023/24. Argentina is extending their export tax reduction from 12% to 9.5% on wheat until March 31, 2026. It was set to expire at the end of June. 

SovEcon estimates the 2025 Russian wheat crop at 81 MMT, which is 1.3 MMT above the previous estimate but shy of the 82.6 MMT number for the year prior.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.46, up 17 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.59 3/4, up 16 3/4 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.36 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.50, up 13 1/2 cents, currently up 6 3/4 cents

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.97 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents, currently up 5 cents

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.10 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents, currently up 4 3/4 cents