USDA Reports and Projections: 

The USDA’s June 2025 WASDE report, expected June 12, will provide updated forecasts for soybean supply, demand, and ending stocks, a critical driver for July futures prices. The May WASDE report estimated 2025-26 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, a 16% decrease from the prior year, driven by increased crush and export demand. Will the June WASDE reduce May’s numbers? Tighter stock projections in the June report could push July futures higher, while any increase in projected stocks might lead to downward pressure on prices, shaping the seasonal buying window for soybeans.

Weekly USDA Crop Progress Reports, scheduled for June 2, 9, and 16, will monitor planting completion and early crop conditions, offering insights into potential supply constraints. As of May 25, 76% of the U.S. soybean crop had been planted, ahead of the five-year average of 68%, with 50% of the crop emerging, compared to 37% on average. Soybean planting is expected to be near completion by mid-June unless weather disruptions occur. Low good-to-excellent condition ratings, similar to corn’s 68% as of May 25, could introduce a bullish weather premium, influencing traders to time their seasonal buys based on these updates.

Weather Conditions: 

U.S. weather forecasts through mid-June indicate conditions that support soybean planting and emergence. However, posts on X highlight potential wetter conditions in some regions, which could slow planting or damage early crops in the Midwest, potentially tightening supply and increasing July soybean futures prices. If favorable weather persists, strong crop development could stabilize prices, impacting the timing of seasonal buys for traders.

Globally, Argentina’s ongoing flooding is reducing soybean yield expectations due to sustained rains and increased disease risks, which could tighten global supply and support U.S. futures prices. Brazil’s record soybean production, however, may counterbalance this by maintaining an ample global supply. Unless weather disruptions occur in Brazil, this dynamic could limit the price upside, prompting traders to monitor global weather patterns when planning seasonal soybean purchases closely.

U.S.-China Trade and Export Demand:   

The U.S.-China trade truce has sparked expectations for increased Chinese soybean purchases, a key factor in the seasonal buying pattern of July soybean futures. However, export sales to China were zero for the week ending May 15, 2025. Total U.S. soybean export sales reached 2,307.9 thousand metric tons for that week, surpassing expectations of 200–700 thousand metric tons, according to USDA data. Weekly export sales reports through mid-June will be crucial, as continued strong sales could potentially lift futures prices, while persistent weak sales to China may limit upward movement.

Domestic crush demand for soybeans remains strong, contributing to the May WASDE report’s projection of U.S. 2025-26 ending stocks at 295 million bushels, down 16% from the prior year. This crush demand, driven by processing for soybean meal and oil, supports tighter supply expectations. Sustained crush strength through mid-June could provide a price floor for July futures, encouraging traders to follow upcoming reports on export and crush data updates.

South American Supply: 

South American soybean production continues to influence U.S. soybean stocks and July futures prices, with Argentina’s ongoing flooding reducing yields and tightening global supply, potentially supporting U.S. futures. However, Brazil’s record soybean output and exports, as reported in May, may offset this by maintaining an ample global supply, limiting price gains unless disruptions occur in Brazil. Traders should monitor South American harvest updates through mid-June to assess impacts on U.S. stock projections.

Technical Picture: 

Source: Barchart 

The July soybean futures technical picture shows a consolidating market since January 2025. A trade above $11.00 would indicate a price action uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows. On the downside, a trade below $9.85 would resume the previous trend of lower highs and lower lows. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern typically indicates a positive technical outlook. Breaking the neckline trendline could project prices to the $12.50 area. 

Following cash soybean prices will help traders by understanding the cash basis. Barchart Soybean Price Indexes

Disaggregated Commitment of Traders (COT) report:   

Source: CME Group Exchange 

Currently, Managed Money is on the fence with a slight bias to the upside, with a net long of 12,654 contracts. Compared to last year, at this time, they had a net short position of -26,426. Both years are very close to neutral positions as they await more information as the soybean planting season comes to a close. 

Seasonal Pattern: 

Seasonality plays a significant role in soybean trading, reflecting consistent historical price patterns driven by planting, growing, and harvest cycles. These patterns, based on past market behavior, do not predict future prices but rather illustrate what the market has historically done, such as price increases during planting uncertainties or declines post-harvest. Professional traders respect seasonality as a tool to identify potential trading opportunities, but they do not take seasonal trades blindly. Instead, traders must conduct their due diligence by analyzing current fundamentals, such as USDA reports, weather data, export statistics, and technical analysis, to confirm the relevance of a seasonal pattern before entering a trade.

Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) 

MRCI research examines multiple periods (5, 15, and 30 years). By combining these different periods, we can identify seasonal patterns that occur in correlation with each other. For example, in the seasonal buy identified by MRCI research (yellow), both the 5 (red) and 15-year (blue) periods move in tandem. Information like this helps confirm that the fundamentals have stayed relatively consistent over the years. 

The upcoming seasonal buying window for soybeans is a relatively short 13 days. MRCI has found that historically, July soybeans close higher on about June 09 than on May 28 for 12 of the past 15 years, with an 80% occurrence. During this period, the net profit was 20’4 cents or $1,025 per contract.   

Source: MRCI

Let’s look at some interesting statistics of MRCI’s research. Looking in the “Worst Equity Amount” column, there are seven empty boxes, indicating that 7 of the 15 years never had a daily closing drawdown. Another pattern from the date of the Worst Equity Amounts is that the years with losses saw the lows of the pattern occur very close to the May 28 entry date. Observing the chart above in the yellow box, you will notice that the seasonal pattern dips in price near the beginning of the seasonal window. Alerting traders that buying the dip may be a better call than buying the momentum. 

Another view of market seasonality can be found here on Barchart. 

Assets to trade: 

Soybean Futures Contracts - Standard (ZS) Mini (XK):

• Soybean futures, traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) through CME Group, are standardized contracts that allow buyers and sellers to agree on a price for soybeans to be delivered on a future date (e.g., July 2025 futures). 

Soybean Options Contracts:

• Options on soybean futures, also traded on CBOT, give speculators the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) soybeans at a specific price before or at expiration. These are useful for seasonal trading, allowing speculators to capitalize on price volatility (e.g., weather-driven spikes in June) with defined risk. 

Agricultural ETFs (SOYB):

• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide exposure to soybeans without direct futures trading. Making it accessible for speculators targeting seasonal price movements in soybeans.

In closing… 

The seasonal buying window for July soybean futures, historically closing higher around June 09 in 12 of the past 15 years with an 80% occurrence, presents a significant opportunity for traders, driven by factors like the June 12, 2025, WASDE report projecting potentially tighter U.S. stocks at 295 million bushels, Argentina’s flood-driven yield losses, and strong U.S. export sales of 2,307.9 thousand metric tons. However, Brazil’s record production and zero exports to China as of May 15 could limit gains, while technical signals like a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern suggest upside potential to $12.50 if prices break $11.00. Armed with this knowledge, you’re better equipped to navigate this 13-day window, but the challenge is yours: Will you dig into the upcoming USDA reports, monitor South American supply shifts, and analyze weather data to confirm this seasonal pattern, or let this opportunity pass? Don’t trade blindly—do your due diligence to make informed decisions.