Walsh Corn Supply & Demand
July corn closed up 1 1/4 cents today; December corn was up 5 cents. The crucial pollination period is in the back half of July. If there’s any weather problems in the extended forecast, a weather premium could quickly enter the market. The South has been unusually wet, while parts of the upper Midwest and High Plains remain in drought conditions. If the USDA decides to adjust new crop carryout lower again in July, that could be bullish for corn prices. On June 12, carryout was lowered by 50 million bushels (mb) to 1,750 mb. In addition, if exports are raised because of higher demand from China or ethanol demand is raised, that could help prices improve. China’s corn imports, year-to-date, are down 93.7%.
If there are acreage declines of 1 million acres going forward that could theoretically show ~200 million bushels less in production. If the yield drops a bushel that would be a further reduction of 100 million bushels. If these scenarios transpire the carryover could drop to 1.4 billion bushels giving the market justification to build in some risk premium.
If you like this article and would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join our email list
Please consider the following:
These trades were structured today 6/18/25 using today’s settlement prices.
September’25 Corn was 429 when these trades were structured.
Buy 1 September’25 450 Call 10 7/8
Price: 10 7/8 Cost: $543.75/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions
September’25 Corn Options Expire 8/22/25 (65 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
Buy 1 September’25 430 Call 17 5/8
Sell 1 September’25 480 Call 5 1/8
Price: 12 ½ Cost: $625.00/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions
September’25 Corn Options Expire 8/22/25 (65 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
Buy 1 December’25 475 Call 14 ¾
Price: 14 ¾ Cost: $737.50/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions
December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (156 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
Buy 1 December’25 450 Call 22 5/8
Sell 1 September’25 500 Call 9 5/8
Price: 13 Cost: $650.00/Trade Package, Plus Fees and Commissions
December’25 Corn Options Expire 11/21/25 (156 Days)
MAXIMUM LOSS: LIMITED
If you’re ready to start trading, click the link below to open an account with Walsh Trading, Inc.
Hans Schmit, Walsh Trading
Direct 312-765-7311 Toll Free 800-993-5449
hschmit@walshtrading.com www.walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients